Hi Everyone,

The past few months have been quite a roller coaster with all the news from the financial markets, the decline of oil, an the appreciation of the dollar.  The latter two have reversed a little among the uncertainty of the past 10 days, the financial markets are simply crazy.

After the euphoria of the bail out of the government last Friday, some reality set in yesterday on Monday and today Tuesday.  I think the Friday uptick was mainly short covering, as the highs were actually set right at opening and futures were trading higher than anytime during the day.  With Congress adding their ideas to the bailout, the market did not like what they were seeing.

I think we are in for more rocky times over the coming weeks, but I don’t think we will go much further down.  I think it is certainly time soon to start picking some of the stocks that have been beaten.  I am concerned that there might be still some ‘dead bodies’ i.e. surprises out there, although I am more concerned that there will be some new revelations in Europe and their financial institution.  Beside UBS, which has shed a lot of value, we have not heard that much from across the Atlantic.  European financial institutions have hundreds of billion of dollars in mortgage papers.

There certainly is also the uncertainty about the election, which likely is going to be very close.  So we will have a very rocky October, as traditionally October is anyway.

This is an amazing time, scary but also fascinating, and the big question is, when is it time to get back into the market.  I think it is soon, watching the dollar, oil and other commodities might give you a hint.

As always, feel free to comment.

Patrick